V-Lab
Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.88%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
9.00%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
9.45%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 20.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1033 | 26.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9179 | 621.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0597 | -11.98*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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