Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
9.48%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
9.58%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
9.96%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 5.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1025 | 6.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9184 | 156.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.0593 | -2.99*** |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9184 | 156.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0593 | -2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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