Skip to main content
V-Lab

Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

8.88%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

9.00%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

9.45%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0071
20.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1033
26.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9179
621.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0597
-11.98***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days