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V-Lab

Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

9.48%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

9.58%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

9.96%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
5.07***
αARCH0.1025
6.62***
βGARCH0.9184
156.32***
γleverage-0.0593
-2.99***

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
5.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1025
6.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9184
156.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0593
-2.99***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days