V-Lab
Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.86%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
8.01%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
8.58%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 20.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 26.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 620.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0598 | -11.97*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
Other Brazilian Real Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies