V-Lab
Brazilian Real GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.60%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
7.77%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
8.35%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 5.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1030 | 6.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9181 | 155.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.0596 | -3.00*** |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1030 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 155.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0596 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
Other Brazilian Real Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies