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V-Lab
V-Lab

Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

7.80%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

8.34%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

10.00%

increased by 2.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1428
9.34***
βGARCH0.7595
27.44***
γleverage-0.1178
-6.43***
λ₁tau intercept0.0083
1.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.0628
5.19***
λ₃tau persistence0.9233
42.30***

0.843

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1428
9.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7595
27.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1178
-6.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0083
1.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0628
5.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9233
42.30***

Persistence:

0.843

Half-life:

4 days