Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
8.84%
1 Week
9.59%
1 Month
12.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1088 | 8.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8054 | 41.75*** |
| γleverage | -0.1009 | -6.40*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1048 | 1.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8385 | 7.28*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.864
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1088 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8054 | 41.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1009 | -6.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1048 | 1.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8385 | 7.28*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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