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V-Lab

Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

8.84%

increased by 1.15%

1 Week

9.59%

increased by 1.90%

1 Month

12.41%

increased by 4.72%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1088
8.67***
βGARCH0.8054
41.75***
γleverage-0.1009
-6.40***
λ₁tau intercept0.1048
1.23
λ₂forecast adj.0.8385
7.28***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.864

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1088
8.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8054
41.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1009
-6.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1048
1.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8385
7.28***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.864

Half-life:

5 days