V-Lab
Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
10.55%
1 Week
10.38%
1 Month
11.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1992 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1426 | 9.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7601 | 27.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.1178 | -6.44*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0083 | 1.01 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0626 | 5.18*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9236 | 42.42*** |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1426 | 9.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7601 | 27.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1178 | -6.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0083 | 1.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0626 | 5.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9236 | 42.42*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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