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V-Lab

Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

10.55%

increased by 3.14%

1 Week

10.38%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

11.15%

increased by 3.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1992 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1426
9.34***
βGARCH0.7601
27.59***
γleverage-0.1178
-6.44***
λ₁tau intercept0.0083
1.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.0626
5.18***
λ₃tau persistence0.9236
42.42***

0.844

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1426
9.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7601
27.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1178
-6.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0083
1.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0626
5.18***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9236
42.42***

Persistence:

0.844

Half-life:

4 days