V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.17%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
40.10%
increased by 2.44%
1 Month
43.70%
increased by 6.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 161% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0665 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7130 | 51.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1074 | 9.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0406 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0162 | 2.24** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9813 | 120.08*** |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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