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Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

43.03%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

46.44%

increased by 3.13%

1 Month

50.66%

increased by 7.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 176% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 176% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0632
2.43**
βGARCH0.7023
14.13***
γleverage0.1110
2.47**
λ₁tau intercept0.0416
1.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0125
1.96**
λ₃tau persistence0.9849
122.34***

0.821

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0632
2.43**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7023
14.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1110
2.47**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0416
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0125
1.96**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9849
122.34***

Persistence:

0.821

Half-life:

4 days