V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
43.03%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
46.44%
increased by 3.13%
1 Month
50.66%
increased by 7.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 176% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 176% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0632 | 2.43** |
| βGARCH | 0.7023 | 14.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.1110 | 2.47** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0416 | 1.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0125 | 1.96** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9849 | 122.34*** |
0.821
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7023 | 14.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1110 | 2.47** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0416 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0125 | 1.96** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9849 | 122.34*** |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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