V-Lab
Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
42.35%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
44.81%
increased by 1.19%
1 Month
48.25%
increased by 4.63%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 164% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7118 | 50.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1079 | 9.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0427 | 1.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0152 | 2.16** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9821 | 121.33*** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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