Ethereum to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
44.52%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
48.62%
increased by 3.46%
1 Month
50.95%
increased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 275% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0426 | 7.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6817 | 40.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1170 | 13.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6756 | 1.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7385 | 7.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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