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V-Lab

US Dollar to Swiss Franc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

0.33%

decreased by 4.62%

1 Week

0.56%

decreased by 4.39%

1 Month

0.90%

decreased by 4.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Swiss Franc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8250
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3500
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.0061
29.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3000
19.56***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days