V-Lab
US Dollar to Swiss Franc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5.96%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.04%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
6.18%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0063 | 0.81 |
| βGARCH | 0.8005 | 18.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0548 | 3.87*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0012 | 2.50** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0372 | 5.02*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9586 | 116.37*** |
0.834
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0063 | 0.81 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8005 | 18.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 3.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0012 | 2.50** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0372 | 5.02*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9586 | 116.37*** |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies