V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
2.34%
1 Week
2.48%
1 Month
3.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 27182 trading days (~107.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.1116 | 0.93 |
| βGARCH | 0.8505 | 4.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0759 | 0.46 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0359 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0046 | 0.38 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9948 | 105.01*** |
1.000
Persistence27182d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8505 | 4.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0759 | 0.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0359 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0046 | 0.38 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9948 | 105.01*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
27182 days
Other US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies