V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.28%
1 Week
2.38%
1 Month
2.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 33812 trading days (~134.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0901 | 1.84* |
| βGARCH | 0.8661 | 8.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.0876 | 0.69 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0480 | 0.26 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0036 | 0.47 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9952 | 38.99*** |
1.000
Persistence33812d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 8.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0876 | 0.69 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0480 | 0.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0036 | 0.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9952 | 38.99*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
33812 days
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