US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.04%
1 Week
5.10%
1 Month
5.36%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 28291 trading days (~112.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1014 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.8557 | 4.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.0858 | 0.51 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0308 | 0.72 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0037 | 0.32 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9956 | 88.24*** |
1.000
Persistence28291d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8557 | 4.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0858 | 0.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0308 | 0.72 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0037 | 0.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9956 | 88.24*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
28291 days
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