V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.79%
1 Week
2.95%
1 Month
3.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 24321 trading days (~96.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 16.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8386 | 76.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1062 | 3.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0373 | 0.94 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0052 | 3.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9942 | 318.86*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
24321 days
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