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V-Lab

US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

2.79%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

2.95%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.53%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 24321 trading days (~96.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
16.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8386
76.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1062
3.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0373
0.94
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0052
3.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9942
318.86***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

24321 days