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US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.04%

increased by 1.47%

1 Week

5.10%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

5.36%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 28291 trading days (~112.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~28291 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.1014
0.91
βGARCH0.8557
4.49***
γleverage0.0858
0.51
λ₁tau intercept0.0308
0.72
λ₂forecast adj.0.0037
0.32
λ₃tau persistence0.9956
88.24***

1.000

Persistence

28291d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1014
0.91
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8557
4.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0858
0.51
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0308
0.72
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0037
0.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9956
88.24***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

28291 days