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V-Lab

Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

1.63%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

1.66%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

1.79%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0090
1.65*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
151.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0013
-0.55
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0105
0.06
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1519
0.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days