Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
1.43%
1 Week
1.47%
1 Month
1.67%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0079 | 5.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9917 | 571.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.0009 | 0.16 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0284 | 3.22*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1907 | 1.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence173286d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0079 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 571.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0009 | 0.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0284 | 3.22*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1907 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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