Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
1.52%
1 Week
1.58%
1 Month
1.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92419 trading days (~366.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0095 | 1.12 |
| βGARCH | 0.9916 | 125.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0021 | -0.76 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0103 | 0.92 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1969 | 0.68 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence92419d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0095 | 1.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 125.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -0.76 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0103 | 0.92 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1969 | 0.68 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
92419 days
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