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V-Lab

Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

1.46%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

1.51%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

1.73%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154032 trading days (~611.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~154032 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0083
3.73***
βGARCH0.9917
1,544.69***
γleverage0.0000
-0.01
λ₁tau intercept0.0228
2.68***
λ₂forecast adj.0.1987
0.55
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

1.000

Persistence

154032d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0083
3.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9917
1,544.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
-0.01
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0228
2.68***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1987
0.55
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

154032 days