V-Lab
Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
1.63%
1 Week
1.66%
1 Month
1.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0090 | 1.65* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 151.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0013 | -0.55 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0105 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1519 | 0.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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