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V-Lab

Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1.97%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

1.99%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.11%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0070
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9918
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0023
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0332
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1489
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days