V-Lab
Chinese Renminbi MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.46%
1 Week
1.51%
1 Month
1.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154032 trading days (~611.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0083 | 3.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9917 | 1,544.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | -0.01 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0228 | 2.68*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1987 | 0.55 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence154032d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0083 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 1,544.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0228 | 2.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1987 | 0.55 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
154032 days
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