V-Lab
Egyptian Pound MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6.62%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
7.48%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
9.21%
increased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1924 | 6.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6497 | 15.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.0099 | 0.17 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0160 | 1.85* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8258 | 4.51*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.847
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1924 | 6.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6497 | 15.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0099 | 0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0160 | 1.85* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8258 | 4.51*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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