Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
6.04%
1 Week
6.17%
1 Month
6.53%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 143% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1647 | 6.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8240 | 50.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.0969 | -4.14*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0003 | 1.84* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9874 | 19.70*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0126 | 1.27 |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1647 | 6.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8240 | 50.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0969 | -4.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0003 | 1.84* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9874 | 19.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0126 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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