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V-Lab

Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

3.21%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

3.44%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

4.20%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 142% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1640
6.50***
βGARCH0.8245
50.13***
γleverage-0.0962
-4.12***
λ₁tau intercept0.0003
1.83*
λ₂forecast adj.0.9872
19.66***
λ₃tau persistence0.0128
1.26

0.940

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1640
6.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8245
50.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0962
-4.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
1.83*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9872
19.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0128
1.26

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days