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V-Lab

Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

3.62%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

3.91%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

4.88%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 143% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 143% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1649
6.53***
βGARCH0.8235
49.87***
γleverage-0.0970
-4.14***
λ₁tau intercept0.0003
1.84*
λ₂forecast adj.0.9874
19.73***
λ₃tau persistence0.0126
1.27

0.940

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1649
6.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8235
49.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0970
-4.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0003
1.84*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9874
19.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0126
1.27

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days