V-Lab
Indian Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.65%
1 Week
3.99%
1 Month
5.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 142% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1641 | 30.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8243 | 150.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0962 | -18.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0003 | 6.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9872 | 52.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0128 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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