Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
1 Week
4.32%
1 Month
4.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 45% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1821 | 29.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7675 | 84.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0564 | -7.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 6.20*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0334 | 7.02*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9666 | 192.20*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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