V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6.54%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
6.42%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
6.31%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1816 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7679 | 35.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.0566 | -1.84* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0002 | 2.57** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0334 | 6.50*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9666 | 199.47*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1816 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7679 | 35.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0566 | -1.84* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0002 | 2.57** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0334 | 6.50*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9666 | 199.47*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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