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V-Lab

Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

-0.00%

decreased by 4.58%

1 Week

0.95%

decreased by 3.63%

1 Month

6.91%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2498
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4996
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0051
19.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9992
73.58***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0008
0.06

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days