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V-Lab

Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.80%

increased by 0.40%

1 Week

3.99%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

4.53%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 45% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1820
29.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7677
85.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0568
-7.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
6.17***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0334
7.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9666
192.21***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days