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Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

6.54%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

6.42%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

6.31%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesian Rupiah MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.1816
7.49***
βGARCH0.7679
35.81***
γleverage-0.0566
-1.84*
λ₁tau intercept0.0002
2.57**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0334
6.50***
λ₃tau persistence0.9666
199.47***

0.921

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1816
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7679
35.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0566
-1.84*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0002
2.57**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0334
6.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9666
199.47***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days