V-Lab
Polish Zloty MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.84%
1 Week
6.00%
1 Month
6.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 316% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1137 | 6.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8041 | 31.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.0864 | -4.86*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0010 | 2.57** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0250 | 6.39*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9725 | 228.28*** |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1137 | 6.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8041 | 31.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0864 | -4.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 2.57** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0250 | 6.39*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9725 | 228.28*** |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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