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Polish Zloty MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.78%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

5.99%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

6.37%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 320% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 320% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1134
6.69***
βGARCH0.8042
31.89***
γleverage-0.0864
-4.87***
λ₁tau intercept0.0010
2.57**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0249
6.40***
λ₃tau persistence0.9725
228.88***

0.874

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1134
6.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8042
31.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0864
-4.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
2.57**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0249
6.40***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9725
228.88***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days