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Polish Zloty MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

7.04%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

7.00%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

6.97%

decreased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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graph of Polish Zloty MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 319% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 319% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1136
6.70***
βGARCH0.8044
31.96***
γleverage-0.0865
-4.88***
λ₁tau intercept0.0010
2.58**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0249
6.39***
λ₃tau persistence0.9725
228.28***

0.875

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1136
6.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8044
31.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0865
-4.88***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
2.58**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0249
6.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9725
228.28***

Persistence:

0.875

Half-life:

5 days