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V-Lab

Polish Zloty EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

7.38%

increased by 1.15%

1 Week

7.51%

increased by 1.28%

1 Month

8.04%

increased by 1.81%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polish Zloty EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 43% more than negative returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~92 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 43% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0059
2.47**
αARCH0.1199
9.24***
βGARCH0.9925
435.11***
γleverage0.0214
2.15**

0.992

Persistence

92d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0059
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1199
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9925
435.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0214
2.15**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

92 days