V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1.43%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.46%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
1.60%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 19.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 1,812.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0201 | 4.21*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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