V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
38.23%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
38.23%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Month
38.26%
decreased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4954 | 13.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 132.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9987 | 9,791.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0007 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
529 days
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