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Romanian Leu GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.65%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

5.67%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

5.74%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Romanian Leu GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5210
10.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0230
66.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1403
144.16***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days