Romanian Leu GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.65%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
5.67%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
5.74%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5210 | 10.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0230 | 66.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1403 | 144.16*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Romanian Leu Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies