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V-Lab

Romanian Leu EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.18%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

5.23%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

5.46%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 30% more than negative returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0014
3.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0738
28.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9958
3,445.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0095
4.20***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

166 days