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V-Lab
V-Lab

Romanian Leu EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

4.41%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

4.47%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

4.69%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~169 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0016
0.92
αARCH0.0751
7.25***
βGARCH0.9959
860.01***
γleverage0.0095
1.04

0.996

Persistence

169d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0016
0.92
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0751
7.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9959
860.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0095
1.04

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

169 days