V-Lab
Romanian Leu EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
4.41%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
4.47%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
4.69%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~169 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0016 | 0.92 |
| αARCH | 0.0751 | 7.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9959 | 860.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0095 | 1.04 |
0.996
Persistence169d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 0.92 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0751 | 7.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9959 | 860.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0095 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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