Romanian Leu EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.18%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
5.23%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
5.46%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 30% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0738 | 28.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 3,445.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0095 | 4.20*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
166 days
Other Romanian Leu Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Currencies