Chinese Renminbi EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
0.98%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.01%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
1.12%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 29, 2005 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~231 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0079 | 1.30 |
| αARCH | 0.0941 | 4.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9970 | 480.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0211 | 1.11 |
0.997
Persistence231d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0079 | 1.30 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0941 | 4.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 480.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0211 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
231 days
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