United States Dollar Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5.83%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
5.88%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
6.05%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0106 | -3.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0913 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9909 | 547.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0013 | -0.14 |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0106 | -3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0913 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 547.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0013 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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