V-Lab
United States Dollar Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.19%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.23%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.39%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 18.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0405 | 23.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9543 | 1,021.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0008 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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