United States Dollar Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
4.82%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
4.87%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.05%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 4.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0406 | 5.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9539 | 257.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.0005 | -0.03 |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0406 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 257.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0005 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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