V-Lab
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.23%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.29%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~171 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 3.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0365 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9660 | 237.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.0132 | -1.30 |
0.996
Persistence171d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0365 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9660 | 237.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0132 | -1.30 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
171 days
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