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US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.21%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.23%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

4.29%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Canadian Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~171 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0005
3.24***
αARCH0.0365
4.84***
βGARCH0.9660
237.76***
γleverage-0.0132
-1.30

0.996

Persistence

171d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
3.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0365
4.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9660
237.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0132
-1.30

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

171 days