V-Lab
South Korean Won GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
10.41%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
10.38%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
10.24%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 5.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.0667 | 5.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9366 | 148.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0223 | -1.25 |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0667 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9366 | 148.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0223 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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