V-Lab
South Korean Won GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.16%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.19%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
6.29%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 5.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 4.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9371 | 148.95*** |
| γleverage | -0.0220 | -1.24 |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9371 | 148.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0220 | -1.24 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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