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V-Lab

US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.19%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.23%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

4.37%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
8.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
12.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9288
279.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0088
-1.06

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days