V-Lab
US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.19%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.23%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.37%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 8.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 12.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9288 | 279.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0088 | -1.06 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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