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US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

3.91%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

3.95%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.12%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0013
2.08**
αARCH0.0653
3.12***
βGARCH0.9291
70.07***
γleverage-0.0086
-0.26

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
2.08**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
3.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9291
70.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0086
-0.26

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days