V-Lab
US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
3.79%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
3.84%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.02%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 2.08** |
| αARCH | 0.0655 | 3.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9289 | 69.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.0086 | -0.26 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0655 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9289 | 69.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0086 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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