US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.94%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.98%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.15%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 8.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 12.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 280.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0092 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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