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V-Lab

US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.94%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

3.98%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.15%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
8.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0656
12.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9293
280.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0092
-1.10

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days