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V-Lab

US Dollar to Philippine Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.17%

increased by 0.45%

1 Week

4.20%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

4.34%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
2.22**
αARCH0.0612
5.75***
βGARCH0.9295
67.75***
γleverage-0.0327
-0.68

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
2.22**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0612
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9295
67.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0327
-0.68

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days