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US Dollar to Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

3.85%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

4.01%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

4.52%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1278
4.14***
βGARCH0.7824
20.82***
γleverage-0.0460
-1.49
λ₁tau intercept0.0187
1.18
λ₂forecast adj.0.6770
2.30**
λ₃tau persistence0.1549
0.38

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1278
4.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7824
20.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0460
-1.49
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0187
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6770
2.30**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1549
0.38

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days