US Dollar to Philippine Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.63%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
3.85%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.28%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1275 | 4.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7828 | 20.86*** |
| γleverage | -0.0459 | -1.50 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0187 | 1.18 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6780 | 2.31** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1531 | 0.38 |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1275 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7828 | 20.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0459 | -1.50 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0187 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6780 | 2.31** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1531 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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