US Dollar to Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3,065.11%
decreased by 182.14%
1 Week
3,061.27%
decreased by 185.98%
1 Month
3,045.99%
decreased by 201.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Jul 14, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6213 | 24.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0484 | 135.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9987 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
552 days
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