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US Dollar to Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3,065.11%

decreased by 182.14%

1 Week

3,061.27%

decreased by 185.98%

1 Month

3,045.99%

decreased by 201.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Jul 14, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6213
24.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0484
135.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9987
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

552 days