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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

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Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωlong-run	0.4260	1.79*
αscore	0.0701	27.37***
βpersistence	0.9990	1,846.58***
νDF	3.7394	31.17***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move	0.4260	1.79*
α score Weight on the scaled score	0.0701	27.37***
β persistence Volatility persistence	0.9990	1,846.58***
ν DF Student-t tail thickness	3.7394	31.17***

V-Lab

US Dollar to Philippine Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other US Dollar to Philippine Peso Analyses