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US Dollar to Philippine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.55%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

3.59%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

3.71%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Philippine Peso APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. The volatility power δ = 2.51 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifeδ = 2.51 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0006
1.49
αARCH0.0498
3.35***
βGARCH0.9255
84.42***
γleverage-0.0270
-0.47
δpower2.5117
5.48***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0498
3.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9255
84.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0270
-0.47
δ

power

Transformation power

2.5117
5.48***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days