V-Lab
Colombian Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.17%
1 Week
14.20%
1 Month
14.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231556644 trading days (~918875.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 49% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 14.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 37.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 707.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1012 | -9.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9730 | 46.90*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231556644 days
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