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V-Lab

Colombian Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.17%

increased by 0.47%

1 Week

14.20%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

14.28%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231556644 trading days (~918875.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 49% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
14.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0635
37.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9365
707.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1012
-9.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9730
46.90***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231556644 days