Peruvian New Sol APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
5.74%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
5.77%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
5.90%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3041 trading days (~12.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3041 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0008 | 2.40** |
| αARCH | 0.0642 | 7.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9358 | 68.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.1231 | -1.41 |
| δpower | 1.9512 | 6.26*** |
1.000
Persistence3041d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 2.40** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0642 | 7.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9358 | 68.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1231 | -1.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9512 | 6.26*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3041 days
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