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V-Lab

Peruvian New Sol APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

5.74%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

5.77%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

5.90%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Peruvian New Sol APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3041 trading days (~12.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3041 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0008
2.40**
αARCH0.0642
7.74***
βGARCH0.9358
68.32***
γleverage-0.1231
-1.41
δpower1.9512
6.26***

1.000

Persistence

3041d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0008
2.40**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0642
7.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9358
68.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1231
-1.41
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9512
6.26***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3041 days