V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
3.46%
1 Week
3.49%
1 Month
3.61%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 5764156 trading days (~22873.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.0616 | 4.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9365 | 90.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.0592 | -0.65 |
| δpower | 2.0734 | 10.09*** |
1.000
Persistence5764156d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0616 | 4.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 90.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0592 | -0.65 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0734 | 10.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5764156 days
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