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V-Lab

Pakistani Rupee GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.64%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

3.67%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.80%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistani Rupee GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 30% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
12.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0713
17.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9369
352.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0164
-2.36**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days