V-Lab
US Dollar to Mexican Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.52%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
4.82%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
5.77%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 207% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0072 | 18.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1897 | 13.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8559 | 305.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1280 | -8.24*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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