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V-Lab

US Dollar to Mexican Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

5.59%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

5.81%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

6.52%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Mexican Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 206% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0073
18.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1902
13.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8555
304.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1281
-8.20***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days