US Dollar to Mexican Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.06%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
6.27%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.97%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1307 | 38.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 323.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1888 | -12.01*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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