V-Lab
Hungarian Forint AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.51%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
9.52%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
9.56%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0326 | 7.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9626 | 181.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0119 | 0.21 |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 7.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9626 | 181.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0119 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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