V-Lab
Hungarian Forint AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.36%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
9.37%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
9.41%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 13.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 28.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9624 | 724.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0132 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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