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V-Lab

Hungarian Forint AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

9.51%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

9.52%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

9.56%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0021
3.45***
αARCH0.0326
7.08***
βGARCH0.9626
181.85***
γleverage0.0119
0.21

0.995

Persistence

144d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0021
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
7.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9626
181.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0119
0.21

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

144 days