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V-Lab

Hungarian Forint AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

9.36%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

9.37%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

9.41%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hungarian Forint AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0021
13.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0328
28.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9624
724.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0132
0.95

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days