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Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

37.07%

decreased by 1.59%

1 Week

42.49%

increased by 3.83%

1 Month

57.63%

increased by 18.97%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9589
5.90***
αARCH0.2382
11.02***
βGARCH0.7418
58.96***
γleverage0.3175
1.05

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9589
5.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2382
11.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7418
58.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3175
1.05

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days