V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.53%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
39.63%
increased by 5.65%
1 Month
55.96%
increased by 21.98%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9686 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.2388 | 11.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7408 | 58.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.3226 | 1.07 |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9686 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2388 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7408 | 58.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3226 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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