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Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

33.53%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

39.63%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

55.96%

increased by 21.98%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 3, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9686
5.91***
αARCH0.2388
11.01***
βGARCH0.7408
58.44***
γleverage0.3226
1.07

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9686
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2388
11.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7408
58.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3226
1.07

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days