Bitcoin to US Dollar AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.07%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
42.49%
increased by 3.83%
1 Month
57.63%
increased by 18.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9589 | 5.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2382 | 11.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7418 | 58.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.3175 | 1.05 |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9589 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2382 | 11.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7418 | 58.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3175 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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