V-Lab
Romanian Leu AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
4.28%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.31%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.43%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 335 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~335 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 2.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 8.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9657 | 248.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0220 | -0.49 |
0.998
Persistence335d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9657 | 248.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0220 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
335 days
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