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V-Lab
V-Lab

Romanian Leu AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.87%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

4.89%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

4.99%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~336 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0006
2.69***
αARCH0.0322
8.46***
βGARCH0.9657
249.22***
γleverage-0.0237
-0.53

0.998

Persistence

336d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
2.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0322
8.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9657
249.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0237
-0.53

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

336 days