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V-Lab

Moroccan Dirham AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

6.58%

increased by 0.40%

1 Week

6.58%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

6.61%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2094 trading days (~8.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2094 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
1.64
αARCH0.0267
7.34***
βGARCH0.9730
257.00***
γleverage-0.0343
-0.81

1.000

Persistence

2094d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0267
7.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
257.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0343
-0.81

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2094 days