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Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

7.05%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

7.05%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

7.08%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1699 trading days (~6.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1699 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0003
2.23**
αARCH0.0285
3.82***
βGARCH0.9725
248.33***
γleverage-0.0027
-0.23

1.000

Persistence

1699d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
2.23**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0285
3.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9725
248.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0027
-0.23

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1699 days