Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
7.05%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
7.05%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
7.08%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1699 trading days (~6.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1699 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.23** |
| αARCH | 0.0285 | 3.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9725 | 248.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0027 | -0.23 |
1.000
Persistence1699d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0285 | 3.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9725 | 248.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0027 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1699 days
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