V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6.13%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
6.14%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
6.17%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1602 trading days (~6.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1602 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.23** |
| αARCH | 0.0281 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9726 | 249.25*** |
| γleverage | -0.0023 | -0.19 |
1.000
Persistence1602d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9726 | 249.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0023 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1602 days
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