Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
7.92%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
7.92%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
7.95%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1896 trading days (~7.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1896 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.21** |
| αARCH | 0.0287 | 3.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9724 | 246.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.0029 | -0.24 |
1.000
Persistence1896d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0287 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9724 | 246.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0029 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1896 days
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