V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.05%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.06%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
5.11%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1542 trading days (~6.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1542 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.21** |
| αARCH | 0.0281 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9727 | 251.02*** |
| γleverage | -0.0025 | -0.21 |
1.000
Persistence1542d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9727 | 251.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0025 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1542 days
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