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Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

6.13%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

6.14%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

6.17%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1602 trading days (~6.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1602 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0003
2.23**
αARCH0.0281
3.80***
βGARCH0.9726
249.25***
γleverage-0.0023
-0.19

1.000

Persistence

1602d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
2.23**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
3.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9726
249.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0023
-0.19

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1602 days