V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.80%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.81%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.86%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1563 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 8.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 15.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9727 | 1,000.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1563 days
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