Moroccan Dirham Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4.94%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.99%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.15%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8002 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 128.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0258 | -0.70 |
| γ2 | 0.0682 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.0798 | -2.95*** |
| γ4 | 0.0773 | 3.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.0889 | -4.31*** |
| γ6 | 0.0796 | 4.07*** |
| γ7 | -0.0288 | -1.46 |
| γ8 | 0.0023 | 0.12 |
| γ9 | -0.0114 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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