V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.23%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
5.26%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
5.38%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8530 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0350 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9479 | 127.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0224 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.0630 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -0.0771 | -2.86*** |
| γ4 | 0.0760 | 3.57*** |
| γ5 | -0.0885 | -4.33*** |
| γ6 | 0.0796 | 4.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.0286 | -1.47 |
| γ8 | 0.0015 | 0.08 |
| γ9 | -0.0105 | -0.80 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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