V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.85%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.90%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.08%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7996 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9483 | 128.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0258 | -0.70 |
| γ2 | 0.0680 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.0796 | -2.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.0771 | 3.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.0887 | -4.32*** |
| γ6 | 0.0794 | 4.07*** |
| γ7 | -0.0285 | -1.45 |
| γ8 | 0.0015 | 0.08 |
| γ9 | -0.0106 | -0.80 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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