V-Lab
South African Rand Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.83%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
9.07%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
9.84%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6826 | 6.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 6.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9015 | 62.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0312 | 2.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.0396 | -2.31** |
| γ3 | -0.0043 | -0.49 |
| γ4 | 0.0279 | 3.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.0264 | -3.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.0149 | 2.49** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6826 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9015 | 62.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0312 | 2.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.0396 | -2.31** |
| γ3 | -0.0043 | -0.49 |
| γ4 | 0.0279 | 3.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.0264 | -3.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.0149 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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