V-Lab
Cardano to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
36.96%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
39.99%
increased by 2.49%
1 Month
42.42%
increased by 4.92%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4674 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1334 | 3.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5559 | 4.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -6.4076 | -4.57*** |
| γ2 | 11.1359 | 4.81*** |
| γ3 | -8.8122 | -4.16*** |
| γ4 | 8.5054 | 3.81*** |
| γ5 | -8.9724 | -3.57*** |
| γ6 | 7.3603 | 3.70*** |
| γ7 | -4.9124 | -3.03*** |
| γ8 | 3.2707 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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