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Cardano to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

55.71%

decreased by 2.15%

1 Week

56.39%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Month

58.50%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/24/2024

to

10/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cardano to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2022 to Oct 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 4.77 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run16.8599
0.98
αscore0.0665
2.68***
βpersistence0.9658
26.35***
νDF4.7660
0.69

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

16.8599
0.98
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0665
2.68***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9658
26.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7660
0.69

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days