V-Lab
Cardano to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
43.89%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
45.40%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
50.05%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.7198 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0702 | 11.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9696 | 121.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8445 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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