Cardano to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.71%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Week
56.39%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
58.50%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Oct 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 4.77 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 16.8599 | 0.98 |
| αscore | 0.0665 | 2.68*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9658 | 26.35*** |
| νDF | 4.7660 | 0.69 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 16.8599 | 0.98 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0665 | 2.68*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9658 | 26.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7660 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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