V-Lab
Cardano to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
65.41%
decreased by 3.21%
1 Week
65.43%
decreased by 3.19%
1 Month
65.48%
decreased by 3.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2022 to Sep 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 4.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.1190 | 0.97 |
| αARCH | 0.0679 | 2.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9690 | 29.26*** |
| νDF | 4.7442 | 0.78 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.1190 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 2.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 29.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7442 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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