V-Lab
Australian Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.54%
1 Week
6.58%
1 Month
6.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4021 | 0.98 |
| αARCH | 0.0267 | 12.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9953 | 190.95*** |
| νDF | 3.2748 | 5.26*** |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4021 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0267 | 12.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 190.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2748 | 5.26*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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