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V-Lab
V-Lab

Australian Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.74%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

5.79%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.96%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0324
5.94***
αARCH0.0352
6.37***
βGARCH0.9578
160.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.23

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0324
5.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0352
6.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9578
160.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.23

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days