V-Lab
Australian Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.16%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
6.20%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
6.37%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0357 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 6.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 159.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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