V-Lab
Mexican Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.37%
increased by 0.85%
1 Week
5.53%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
6.00%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8667 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1328 | 7.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8285 | 43.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 0.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0375 | -0.95 |
| γ3 | 0.0765 | 2.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.0892 | -3.86*** |
| γ5 | 0.0837 | 4.15*** |
| γ6 | -0.0822 | -3.81*** |
| γ7 | 0.0722 | 2.94*** |
| γ8 | -0.0886 | -2.56** |
0.961
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8667 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1328 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8285 | 43.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 0.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0375 | -0.95 |
| γ3 | 0.0765 | 2.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.0892 | -3.86*** |
| γ5 | 0.0837 | 4.15*** |
| γ6 | -0.0822 | -3.81*** |
| γ7 | 0.0722 | 2.94*** |
| γ8 | -0.0886 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
Other Mexican Peso Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies