V-Lab
Mexican Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.34%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
7.41%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
7.67%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5421 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 85.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 640.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9437 | 39.64*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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