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Mexican Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.30%

increased by 0.79%

1 Week

11.30%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

11.32%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~106 daysv = 2.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5395
0.92
αARCH0.0550
20.74***
βGARCH0.9935
149.40***
νDF2.9461
9.52***

0.994

Persistence

106d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5395
0.92
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
20.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9935
149.40***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9461
9.52***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

106 days