V-Lab
Danish Krone GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.44%
1 Week
4.46%
1 Month
4.53%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 03:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4237 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.0216 | 19.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,628.95*** |
| νDF | 3.2013 | 31.75*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4237 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 19.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,628.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2013 | 31.75*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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