V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.92%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
2.92%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
2.91%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 117.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9740 | 28.08*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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