V-Lab
Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
11.06%
1 Week
11.05%
1 Month
11.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 228 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3570 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.0301 | 23.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9970 | 476.79*** |
| νDF | 2.5682 | 30.38*** |
0.997
Persistence228d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3570 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0301 | 23.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 476.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5682 | 30.38*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
228 days
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