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Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

11.06%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

11.05%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

11.02%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 228 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~228 daysv = 2.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3570
1.34
αARCH0.0301
23.84***
βGARCH0.9970
476.79***
νDF2.5682
30.38***

0.997

Persistence

228d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3570
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0301
23.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
476.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5682
30.38***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

228 days