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Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

10.87%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

10.86%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

10.83%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 225 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~225 daysv = 2.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3535
1.33
αARCH0.0300
23.79***
βGARCH0.9969
464.55***
νDF2.5692
29.73***

0.997

Persistence

225d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3535
1.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0300
23.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9969
464.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5692
29.73***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

225 days