V-Lab
Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
10.87%
1 Week
10.86%
1 Month
10.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 225 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3535 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0300 | 23.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9969 | 464.55*** |
| νDF | 2.5692 | 29.73*** |
0.997
Persistence225d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3535 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0300 | 23.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 464.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5692 | 29.73*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
225 days
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