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Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

8.20%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

8.20%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

8.19%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Israeli Shekel GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1991 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~160 daysv = 3.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.2921
1.04
αscore0.0523
17.21***
βpersistence0.9957
246.03***
νDF3.8366
6.38***

0.996

Persistence

160d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.2921
1.04
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0523
17.21***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9957
246.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8366
6.38***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days