Israeli Shekel GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
6.40%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
6.42%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
6.48%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0625 | 9.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9269 | 141.94*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 9.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9269 | 141.94*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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