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V-Lab

Colombian Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.07%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

13.09%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

13.19%

decreased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0013
4.85***
αARCH0.0659
10.52***
βGARCH0.9341
175.68***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0659
10.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9341
175.68***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-