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Colombian Peso GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

16.50%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

16.52%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

16.59%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Colombian Peso GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0011
4.70***
αARCH0.0761
6.69***
βGARCH0.9365
191.01***
γleverage-0.0252
-1.48

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0761
6.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9365
191.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0252
-1.48

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days